Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South.
Convective snowfalls could bring localized heavy precipitation, especially in higher terrain.
Uncertainty remains about the total accumulation from these enhanced precipitations.
This new snow will likely bond poorly to the underlying surfaces and be reactive to riders.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
A size 1.5 slab avalanche (70 cm deep) was accidentally triggered by a snowmobile near York Creek. It likely occurred on Friday on a short but steep northerly slope below treeline.
Old evidence of avalanches are still visible in the region, including wet loose avalanches (size 1 and 2) on steep solar aspects and very large deep releases (up to size 2.5) in the Crowsnest South area. We suspect they occurred last week as a result of strong sun and warmer temperatures.
If you have any observations from this data sparse region, let us know what you are seeing by submitting a report to the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 15 cm of new snow overlies a crust on solar aspects, faceted snow and surface hoar (up to 10 mm) in shaded and wind-sheltered areas. Wind-affected surfaces are also found in exposed areas. At lower elevations, a crust exists on or near the surface.
A melt-freeze crust with facets above can be found 50 to 120 cm deep, but it has not produced any recent avalanche activity in the region.
The weak layer at the base of the snowpack produced some large avalanches with strong sun and warm temperatures earlier in the week. Activity on this layer has tapered off with cooler temperatures and overnight recovery, but professionals are still tracking it to watch for signs of it waking up.
Weather Summary
Unsettled weather will continue to bring scattered flurries until a ridge of high pressure invades the region early next week. Enhanced precipitations are expected in higher terrain Sunday night and Monday.
Sunday night
Cloudy. Isolated flurries. Local amounts 5-10 cm. Low alpine temperatures of -8 °C. Light northeast ridge wind gusting to 30 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.
Monday
Cloudy. Isolated flurries. Local amounts up to 5 cm. High alpine temperatures of -7 °C. Light northeast ridge wind. Freezing level at valley bottom.
Tuesday
Generally sunny periods. High alpine temperatures of -6 °C. Light northeast ridge wind. Freezing level at valley bottom.
Wednesday
Generally sunny. High alpine temperatures of -2 °C. Light northeast ridge wind. Freezing level rises to 2000 metres.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
- Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
- Minimize your exposure time below cornices.
- Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Isolated wind-loaded pockets or small wind slabs can be found on specific alpine features. These wind slabs could be reactive to riders, especially near ridge crests.
Aspects: South, South West, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Dry
Localized forecasted snow amounts may poorly bond to the underlying surfaces. In sheltered terrain where snow hasn't been wind-affected, dry loose avalanches could easily initiate in steeper terrain. Be careful with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2