Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Lizard-Flathead.
Expect spring sun and rising freezing levels to increase the hazard as the day progresses. Leave solar slopes before they get moist. Moderate wind could help keep things cool, but could also be building new wind slabs near ridge crests.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY NIGHT - Clear / moderate west wind / alpine low temperature near -11 / freezing level valley bottom
WEDNESDAY - Mostly clear / moderate south west wind / alpine high 0 / freezing level 2000 m
Stating Thursday through Easter weekend, some models suggest it is possible we will not get good overnight recovery.
THURSDAY- Partly cloudy / moderate south west wind / alpine high +5 / freezing level 2300 m
FRIDAY- Partly cloudy / moderate south west wind / alpine high 0 / freezing level to 1900 m
Avalanche Summary
A size 2 cornice triggered storm slab was reported south of Sparwood on Tuesday. A few size 1 loose moist ski cuts were reported with some limited warming at lower elevations.
Widespread natural and explosives triggered avalanches up to size 2.5, and skier controlled avalanches up to size 2 were reported on Monday.Â
Glide cracks continue to grow. This serves as a great reminder to avoid slopes with glide cracks on them at all times. They are inherently unstable and can release at any time.
Snowpack Summary
The 30-55 cm of recent storm snow appears to be bonding well to previous melt freeze crusts from mid March that were found on all but steep north facing alpine slopes. Moderate westerly winds have been transporting snow and forming new wind slabs in lee features. Cornices are reported to be large and looming. With rising freezing levels and sunny skies, snow will likely lose strength as it get moist at lower elevations and upper elevations on solar aspects.Â
Terrain and Travel
- Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Carefully monitor the bond between the new snow and old surface.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Loose wet avalanches in steep southerly terrain should be on your radar with sunny skies and freezing levels rising to ridge top on Wednesday. A natural cycle is likely with spring sun hitting fresh storm snow for the first time.
Leave slopes before they get moist and avoid overhead hazards like cornices and avalanche paths in the heat of the day.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Storm Slabs
There is some uncertainty about lingering storm slabs into Wednesday's warm up. Moderate to strong westerly winds have been loading lee terrain, especially near ridge crests. Also watch for stiffer wind slabs in more exposed, open terrain.
Sheltered terrain out of the wind will provide better quality riding.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Recent strong southwest through northwest winds have been building fresh cornice growth.
Cornices falls can be a hazard on their own, and can also act as a trigger for avalanches on the slopes below.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3