Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 25th, 2019 1:00AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

Jesse Percival, VIAC

Vancouver Island.

No new avalanches observed or reported

Summary

Past Weather

A period of cool and clear Monday was followed by wind and precipitation. Freezing levels remained low but did rise to 1200 meters for a brief period. Snowfall accumulation where in the range of 20 centimeters.

Weather Forecast

On the fringe of a strong storm system that is effecting the north coast. Temperatures and freezing levels will remain low with moderate snowfall on Christmas. The remainder of the week will likely only see trace amounts. Expect the winds to remain light.Wednesday 10 mm precipitation , Winds Light from the South east , Freezing levels 1000 meters.Thursday trace amounts of precipitation , Winds light from the South east, Freezing levels 1000 meters.Friday trace amounts of precipitation , Winds light from the South east, Freezing levels 1000 meters.

Terrain Advice

Cautious route finding near ridge tops as your are entering terrain on north aspect.Loose dry avalanches may be small in destructive size but will have the strength to push a human into hazard terrain such as cliffs.Early season low snow conditions exist at lower elevations, hazards such as creeks and rocks are just hiding under the snow-pack. Slow your pace and give plenty of time to maneuver around these hidden hazards.

Snowpack Summary

Low and shallow snow pack conditions exist with depths below tree line at 60 to 70 cm and treeline depths of 80 to 100 cm. The snow pack in the alpine is exceeding 150 centimeters.Past new snowfall of 20 plus centimeters has buried a surface hoar layer that is likely to be found in areas sheltered from the wind in both the alpine and at treeline. A weak interface down 45 -50 centimeters has continued to produce moderate shears during testing.The lower snow pack has a basal facet layer that appears to be bonding but is widespread.

Snowpack Details

Surface: unconsolidated and dry
Upper: beginning to settle with buried surface hoar down up-to 20 centimeters
Mid: a weakness down 45 centimeters has been consistently producing moderate shears when tested.
Lower: a weak and faceted crust exists at the base of the snow pack

Confidence

Moderate - Increase in field observations and professional reporting

Problems

Wind Slabs

Found in both the alpine and treeline , but specific to north east thru to north west aspects, expect this avalanche problem to be touchy to light triggers such as skiers. The chance of these avalanches being triggered is possible , but likely in the alpine and when triggered may produce avalanches up to size two.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Loose Dry

Found at all elevations and aspects, expect this avalanche problem to be touchy to light triggers such as skiers. The chance of these avalanches being triggered is possible and when triggered may produce avalanches up to size one.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Dec 26th, 2019 1:00AM