Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Upper range snowfall amounts are expected for areas in the southern part of the region.TONIGHT: Flurries. Accumulation 2-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature -6. Freezing level 700 m.SATURDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature -4. Freezing level 900 m.SUNDAY: Snow. Accumulation 15-25 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature -4. Freezing level 1000 m.MONDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 2-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature -5. Freezing level 900 m.

On Thursday several large (size 2-2.5) natural storm slab avalanches were observed on northerly aspects from 1200-2300 m, as well as one size 3 that was about 70 cm deep and propagated 250 m wide.Wednesday several natural and skier triggered avalanches from size 1 to 1.5 where reported at treeline and alpine elevations. Most of these were failing on the recent January 15th crust however one ski cut result was believe to have failed on the January 6th crust at 1950 m on a north aspect.

Approximately 40-50 cm of new storm snow has buried the most recent, January 15th crust. This crust exists on almost all aspects and elevations with the exception of northerly aspects above 1850 m where the snow surface remained dry during the alpine inversion event on the weekend.Below the January 15th crust about 30-50 cm of snow overlies a 1 cm thick crust that was buried on January 6th which exists up to about 2000m. Mid and lower snowpack layers including the mid December and late November crust layers have produced moderate to hard, sudden results in snowpack tests in the northern part of the region last week and may be a concern for step-down potential.