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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2018–Jan 17th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Sea To Sky.

New snow and wind have created touchy storm slabs above the crust that formed with recent warm temperatures.  These slabs will continue to build and hazard rise as the next storm system arrives on Wednesday.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Flurries. Accumulation 2-5 cm. Ridge wind moderate, south. Temperature -2. Freezing level 1000 m.WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, snow. Accumulation 30-40 cm. Ridge wind strong to extreme, south. Temperature near 0. Freezing level rising to 1600 m.THURSDAY: Cloudy, snow. Accumulation 15-25 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature near 0. Freezing level 1000 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy, snow. Accumulation 5-15 cm. Ridge wind moderate, south. Temperature -3. Freezing level 900 m.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday, explosive control work and ski cutting produced numerous size 1-1.5 storm slab releases on leeward aspects at treeline and into the alpine, running on the January 15th crust.  Expect this activity to increase as more snow and strong winds forecasted for Wednesday and Thursday.Warm alpine temperatures on Sunday produced numerous naturally triggered loose wet and wet slab avalanches mostly in the size 1-1.5 range, and a few up to size 2 on solar aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Above 1600 m elevation, 20-40 cm of new snow overlies the January 15th crust which exists on all aspects and elevations. This crust is thin on northerly aspects and up to 3 cm thick on solar aspects. Below this crust 30-40 cm of moist, well settled snow overlies the January 6th crust which is now buried 40-80 cm below the surface and exists up to about 2000m. Beneath the January 6 crust, the lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Loading from new snow and strong winds will create widespread storm slabs. A release near the surface may still have the potential to step down to a deeper layer.
Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2