Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2018–Jan 15th, 2018

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Continued warm temperatures will make the snow surface moist and primed for loose wet avalanches on steep terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Monday: Cloud building through the day. Rain and then snow starting in the evening. Freezing level 2600m falling rapidly in the evening. Light southeasterly winds.Tuesday: up to 10 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1400 m. Moderate southwesterly winds.Wednesday: 10-15 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1000m. Strong southerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Under rapid warming conditions, slab avalanches are possible above 1500 m where recent new snow has fallen. Loose snow avalanches are possible on steep terrain at all elevations, but will be most likely on southerly aspects if the sun comes out.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures at all elevations are consolidating the snowpack and making the surface moist. At elevations above approximately 1500 m precipitation from the previous storm fell as snow, while below that elevation, rain fell. At higher elevations, it's possible a layer of cold snow has become trapped under the most recent storm slab, increasing the likelihood of seeing slab avalanche activity. Below the new storm snow, you'll find about a thick crust buried 30-50 cm below the surface that was buried on January 6. This crust exists up to about 2000m. Beneath the January 6 crust, the lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Very warm temperatures will release loose snow avalanches in steep terrain. Slopes that are affected by the sun are more likely to produce avalanches that gain mass.

Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Minimize exposure to steep slopes on warm or sunny days.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size: 1 - 2