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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 27th, 2016–Mar 28th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Rising temperatures and wind redistribution are things to watch right now. Steer clear of cornices and cornice run-outs.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

The cold front passing through the Sea to Sky region should be out of the area by late this evening ushering in a ridge of high pressure that will dominate the weather pattern for most of next week.  There may be a few scattered convective showers in advance of the high pressure system, but for the most part, the precipitation is over for the time being. MONDAY: Sunny skies with some cloudy periods, no precipitation in the forecast. Freezing level is forecast to rise to 1700 m, with moderate winds from the south. TUESDAY:  Sunny with a few clouds, temperatures forecast to rise to 2700m as we come under the influence of the high pressure ridge, winds light from the north, no precipitation in the forecast. WEDNESDAY: A few high clouds, warm temperatures at the freezing level rises to 3000m, winds continue to be light from the north, with no precipitation in the forecast. For more detailed mountain weather information visit: https://avalanche.ca/weather

Avalanche Summary

Cornice failures dominated the reports from yesterday in the Sea to Sky region.  There were numerous natural cornice releases as well as reports from commercial operators that threatening cornices were successfully controlled with explosives.  Also of note were reports of small loose-wet avalanches on steep south facing terrain.  These wet avalanches may become more of a hazard as thing heat up in the next few days.

Snowpack Summary

Parts of the Sea to Sky region have received up to 10cm of snow overnight along with moderate winds from the south.  Wind slabs can be expected at treeline and above in terrain directly lee of ridges. There may still be wind and storm slabs hidden from the last precipitation event.  Combined with the new snow, lee slopes may be touchy for a short time.  Below these transient instabilities, the snowpack is  generally well-settled throughout with no notable persistent weaknesses. South slopes will become moist/wet quickly as the strong spring sun comes out tomorrow. Cornices are still growing and will become weak as the sun and clear skies associated with the high pressure ridge warms things up in the next few days.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The storm slab from the recent precipitation event is not, in itself, a great hazard, but where it may have been redistributed by by winds during the storm, it will be a problem until things settle out and bond.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Cornices

Cornices continue to grow and will become weak and potentially quite dangerous with warming temperatures.
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Loose Wet

Pay close attention to aspect, elevation and solar input as things heat up.
Loose wet activity may ramp up quickly as the sun comes out and warms up all the storm snow. Plan your day so that you're off sun exposed slopes by lunch time.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3