Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 11th, 2015–Feb 12th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

At upper elevations where rain is forecast to fall on previously dry snow we could see avalanches release on the curst that formed early in February. Warming temperatures will also increase the likelihood of cornice collapse.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Warm, wet and, windy conditions look likely to persist through the next couple of days. Thursday will see light to moderate precipitation (up to 10mm) and a freezing level of 2500m with light to moderate southwest winds. Brief periods of sun are expected for Friday broken by showers with a freezing level of 3000m and moderate southwest winds. The clearing trend will continue into Saturday when the freezing level is forecast to return to 1500m accompanied by light northwest winds.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity appears to have tapered off for now although small lose wet avalanches have been reported in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

It's definitely not your typical early February coastal snowpack. At upper elevations continued warm temperatures are encouraging the settlement of recent storm snow. The supportive crust that formed at all elevations earlier in February can now be found down about 70 to 100cm in the alpine. Southwest winds have loaded lee features and cornices are reported to be looming threateningly at ridgeline. Snowpack tests on the crust are showing that it is gaining strengthen. Moist snow has been reported bellow 2200m and a slush on crust setup makes for difficult riding conditions below treeline.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A curst is buried about 1 m down. While it appears to be bonding well to the overlying snow it still could have the potential to produce a large and destructive avalanche. Rain, significant warming or a collapsing cornice could trigger this layer.

Slopes receiving direct sun for the first time since the storm could produce natural avalanches.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches will likely be most problematic at elevations below the freezing level where the forecast precipitation falls as rain.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be very cautious with gully features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2