Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Friday night: Steady, moderate to heavy precipitation. Strong to extreme SW winds. Freezing level around 1500-1800 m.Saturday: Light to moderate precipitation. Winds easing to moderate southerly. Freezing level around 1800 m, falling to 1000 m.Sunday: Clearing up. Light winds. Freezing level around 800 m.Monday: Light snow. Light winds. Freezing level around 1200 m.

We don’t yet have any reports from Friday's intense storm.Recent reports include several human-triggered slab avalanches to size 2, involving wind slabs, recent storm snow weaknesses and the persistent weakness buried last week. Some events involving the persistent weakness were remotely triggered from as far as 50 m away. A size 3 slab failed naturally on the persistent weakness, wrapping around an entire north-facing bowl and running across a flat bench. A size 2.5 avalanche was triggered by a party of sledders on Sunday in the Brohm Ridge area, and left a man buried 1.8 metres below the surface. Check out the Forecaster blog for the full story. Activity seems to have slowed on Wednesday, but intense storm loading is expected to drive another avalanche cycle.

Low density snow had high density snow or rain (depending on elevation) piled on top of it at rapid loading rates on Friday. Initial reports suggest a poor bond below the storm snow, but observations are very limited. A potentially volatile weakness of surface hoar and/or a crust exists within the upper snowpack. Add an intense storm, with heavy precipitation rates, warming and very strong winds, and we have a good recipe for widespread avalanche activity. The lower snowpack is well settled.