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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 8th, 2019–Jan 9th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Forecast temperatures and freezing levels are uncertain. Hazard may increase in areas experiencing above freezing temperatures and sunny weather.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels are tricky to forecast in the coming days with mild temperatures and temperature inversions dominating the weather pattern this week. TUESDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with flurries, up to 5 cm / southwest winds, 20-50 km/h / alpine low temperature near -7WEDNESDAY - Cloudy with flurries, up to 5 cm / southwest winds, 40-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / Alpine temperature inversionTHURSDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest winds, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / alpine temperature inversionFRIDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / southwest winds, 10-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / alpine temperature inversion

Avalanche Summary

A size 1 human triggered wind slab avalanche on an east aspect at 1950 m was reported on Tuesday.A few reports of natural and explosives triggered avalanches to size 1.5 were reported in the region on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 60 to 80 cm of snow fell above 1500 m in the region late last week. Strong winds have redistributed the snow and formed wind slabs in alpine and treeline areas. In sheltered areas around treeline, this snow possibly overlies a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals). Below 1500 m, the precipitation largely fell as rain, so expect to see a crust at or near the snow surface.In the east of the region near Corbin, a persistent weak layer that formed in early December may still be found 80 to 120 cm deep. This layer mostly consists of faceted (sugary) snow with some isolated areas also containing surface hoar. While professionals are still tracking this layer, it has not been reactive for some time now.There is a mix of crusts and facets that formed in late October/early November near the bottom of the snowpack. This layer may only be an issue on steep slopes where the snowpack is shallow.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The snow from late last week has been redistributed into the lee of terrain features by steady southwest winds. Note that in the east of the region there is still the potential for wind slab avalanches to step down to deeper weak layers.
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2