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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 2nd, 2019–Jan 3rd, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Snowfall amounts for Thursday are uncertain. HIGH danger will likely result if you find more than 30 cm of accumulated snow. It will be a good time to remain conservative with route selection and avoid avalanche terrain if signs point to HIGH danger.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, strong southwest winds, freezing level below valley bottom.THURSDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 1300 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Skiers were capable of triggering small (size 1) wind slabs on Wednesday. The likelihood of triggering avalanches will increase with the incoming storm.

Snowpack Summary

Forecasted amounts are variable for Thursday, but expect new storm slabs to form with the new snow falling with strong southwest winds. In sheltered areas, new snow will add to the current 20 cm of snow that covers a weak layer of feathery surface hoar crystals, which was buried on Boxing Day.A persistent weak layer that formed in early December may be found 80 to 120 cm deep. This layer mostly consists of sugary faceted snow with some isolated areas also containing feathery surface hoar crystals. While professionals are still tracking this layer, it has not been reactive for some time now, except for the east side of the region near Corbin.Near the bottom of the snowpack lies a mix of crusts and facets that formed in late October/early November. Triggering an avalanche at the base of the snowpack is unlikely at this time, although the most likely place to do so would be from a steep rocky start zone in an area where the snowpack was shallow.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecasted snowfall will likely form fresh storm slabs over the day. The deepest deposits will be in lee terrain features near ridges. Note that triggered slabs could step down to deeper weak layers, particularly in the east of the region.
If triggered, slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking, or avalanche activity.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5