Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 27th, 2018–Dec 28th, 2018

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Change is coming, Expect the hazard to increase this weekend with new snow, strong winds and warm temps.Plan accordingly

Weather Forecast

Friday is cloudy with sunny periods with isolated flurries and -12 C. Saturday there will be potentially 18cm of snow, -12 C to -6 C, and West winds 30 km/h gusting to 75 km/h. A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

Last weeks storm snow is providing support underfoot. Snow conditions at treeline is variable from powder in sheltered areas, to slabs and sastrugi in exposed locations and near ridge crests. The Dec. 11th persistent weak layer is buried 50-100cm. The deep persistent weakness lingers near the ground in the depth hoar and facets.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed in the last few days. Last weeks storm initiated several deep releases from the alpine up to size 3. They appear to have been triggered by cornice failures from South Easterly facing slopes. It is likely these occurred at the interface of last weeks snow and then stepped down to the basal weakness.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The new snow from last week is settling and the interface with the old snow surface, buried up to a meter deep, is strengthening. Large triggers such as cornices have produced several releases since the last storm.

Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.Avoid thin, rocky or unsupported slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The base of the snowpack is weak and facetted. Likely trigger locations are around rocks, where cold air can penetrate to the base of the snowpack, and shallow snowpack locations.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5

Wind Slabs

Winds have abated on all but the highest ridge tops where slabs will be at their most developed.

If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5