Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 20th, 2019 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wet Slabs.

jonas hoke, Parks Canada

Jasper.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/en/pn-np/ab/jasper/bulletins/B87F4A98-830E-4EB0-A084-AEC07B5273B6Avoid avalanche terrain on solar aspects, especially in the late afternoon when the snowpack is at it's weakest.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Very strong solar effect, with clear skies forecast all week. Temperatures will remain above freezing overnight and daytime highs will continue to be in the teens on Thursday, with freezing levels over 3000m. Light winds all week.

Snowpack Summary

Spring snowpack on solar aspects, with minimal crust recovery overnight rapidly breaking down under daily intense solar input. The entire snowpack is isothermal below treeline on solar aspects. The snowpack remains dry on shady aspects at upper elevations, but may become reactive with continued warm temps.

Avalanche Summary

No road patrol Wednesday. Numerous large (to size 2.5) natural loose wet avalanches observed on solar aspects at all elevations on Monday and Tuesday. Several large (Size 2-3) natural wet slabs observed on solar slopes on Monday and Tuesday. Explosive control on Monday and Tuesday produced loose wet and wet slab avalanches up to size 2.5.

Confidence

Problems

Loose Wet

Progressively rising hazard over the day. Expect natural and human triggered loose wet avalanches on all sunny slopes, especially where steeper than 35 degrees. These are gouging to ground in thin areas.

Avoid solar aspects.Start and finish early before the surface crusts melt.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Wet Slabs

As the upper snowpack becomes saturated with water, Wet Slabs are failing on solar aspects. In shallow areas, these are failing on the basal layers.

If triggered loose wet sloughs may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.Avoid exposure to overhead solar avalanche terrain, avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Mar 21st, 2019 4:00PM