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Avalanche Forecast

Apr 7th, 2019–Apr 8th, 2019
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

A trace of snow may be possible Sunday night into Monday, but that is expected to have little impact on avalanche hazard. Continue to minimize exposure to steep slopes as temperatures warm through the day, especially in areas with fresh snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

The weather models continue to have a tough time with the current pattern but it doesn't look like much snow is going to make it to the Lizard Range until possibly Tuesday. Still, take the wind and precipitation values with a grain of salt.SUNDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1500 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, trace of snow possible at upper elevations.MONDAY: Scattered clouds in the morning building to overcast in the afternoon, freezing level around 2000 m, light variable wind, trace of snow possible at upper elevations.TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 2000 m, light northeast wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible at upper elevations, an additional 5 to 10 cm of snow possible Tuesday night.WEDNESDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 1500 m, light south/southwest wind, 4 to 6 cm of snow possible at upper elevations.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose avalanches to size 1.5 were reported from terrain that generally faces north around 2000 m on Saturday. A natural cornice failure also produced a size 2 slab on a northeast facing slope at 2200 m on Saturday. 

Snowpack Summary

Wet flurries and rain have sprinkled a spring snowpack and it looks like that trend will continue Monday, but there is still some reasonably good riding to be found. During the heat of the day, especially under direct sun, the snow surface becomes moist or wet almost everywhere. The exception being high elevation north facing features. With spring conditions, the avalanche hazard will fluctuate greatly depending on the strength of the overnight re-freeze and how quickly the snowpack is warmed up.Steep, north facing, alpine terrain may still hold a cold, dry, snowpack where a well settled slab rests on weak facets (sugary snow). Although unlikely, human triggering of persistent slabs on this layer may still be possible, especially in rocky alpine terrain with a shallow or highly variable depth snowpack.Below treeline the snowpack is becoming isothermal.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

The likelihood of loose avalanches increases as temperatures warm through the day and/or if the sun comes out for a prolonged period of time. Loose wet avalanches are more likely in areas with fresh snow.
Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.A moist/wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches all indicate a weakening snowpack.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5