Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

The weather models continue to have a tough time with the current pattern but it doesn't look like much snow is going to make it to the Lizard Range until possibly Tuesday. Still, take the wind and precipitation values with a grain of salt.SUNDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1500 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, trace of snow possible at upper elevations.MONDAY: Scattered clouds in the morning building to overcast in the afternoon, freezing level around 2000 m, light variable wind, trace of snow possible at upper elevations.TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 2000 m, light northeast wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible at upper elevations, an additional 5 to 10 cm of snow possible Tuesday night.WEDNESDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 1500 m, light south/southwest wind, 4 to 6 cm of snow possible at upper elevations.

Numerous loose avalanches to size 1.5 were reported from terrain that generally faces north around 2000 m on Saturday. A natural cornice failure also produced a size 2 slab on a northeast facing slope at 2200 m on Saturday. 

Wet flurries and rain have sprinkled a spring snowpack and it looks like that trend will continue Monday, but there is still some reasonably good riding to be found. During the heat of the day, especially under direct sun, the snow surface becomes moist or wet almost everywhere. The exception being high elevation north facing features. With spring conditions, the avalanche hazard will fluctuate greatly depending on the strength of the overnight re-freeze and how quickly the snowpack is warmed up.Steep, north facing, alpine terrain may still hold a cold, dry, snowpack where a well settled slab rests on weak facets (sugary snow). Although unlikely, human triggering of persistent slabs on this layer may still be possible, especially in rocky alpine terrain with a shallow or highly variable depth snowpack.Below treeline the snowpack is becoming isothermal.