Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 16th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
bchristie,
Avalanche Canada
The avalanche danger will increase as a storm moves in through the day. Choose mellow slopes and give the snowpack time to adjust to the new load. Uncertainty about a buried layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals would have me using extra caution around treeline.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
Very little avalanche activity was reported on Sunday or Monday, but expect natural and human triggered avalanches to be more likely on Tuesday in areas that receive significant new snow.
On Saturday in the Shames backcountry, pinwheeling of moist snow was reported in steeper terrain, along with signs of recent, wet loose avalanches.
Also, a small, rider triggered avalanche was reported northwest of Terrace. It occurred around treeline, and failed down 30 cm, possibly on a layer of surface hoar that was buried on Dec 9.
Snowpack Summary
Fresh snow will be falling mostly on 20-50 cm of dry settling snow, or refrozen or moist snow below 1000 m. In sheltered areas that didn't see rain last week, a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals buried in early January will now be 30-60 cm below the surface.
Weak layers that were reactive over the Christmas and New Year's period have shown signs of bonding and gaining strength. These include a surface hoar layer buried on Dec 28 found 50 to 100 cm deep and a facet layer buried on Dec 23 found 70 to 120 cm deep.
Weather Summary
Monday Night
Cloudy. Light snowfall, up to 10cm around Kitimat. Moderate to strong southwest alpine wind. Freezing level around 750 m.
Tuesday
Cloudy. 2-5cm of snow expected, 20-30cm possible around Kitimat. Moderate to strong south alpine wind. Alpine temperatures around -5°C. Snow/Rain line as low as 250m.
Wednesday
Cloudy. 5cm of snow expected overnight. Possibly another 20-30 cm around Kitimat. Moderate southwest alpine wind. Alpine temperatures around -10°C. Snow/Rain line as low as 250 m.
Thursday
Cloudy. 5-10cm of snow expected. Strong southwest alpine wind. Alpine temperature rising to -5ºC through the day.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Problems
Storm Slabs
As a new storm moves in from the south, watch for reactive storm slabs to form through the day. This storm is likely to hit earliest and hardest in the more southern parts of the forecast area, around Kitimat.
This new storm snow will add to the load sitting on a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals buried in early January. A few recent avalanches suggest this layer might just be reaching its critical load. Use extra caution in areas open areas sheltered from the wind where surface hoar is likely to be preserved.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 17th, 2023 4:00PM
