Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 3rd, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
mconlan,
Avalanche Canada
The recent snow will likely remain touchy and the potential to trigger a buried weak layer remains.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 30 km/h south wind, alpine temperature -13 C.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -12 C.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds with no precipitation, 20 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -12 C.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C.
Avalanche Summary
Many storm slab avalanches were observed on Sunday, at all elevation bands. A natural avalanche cycle likely occurred into Monday during the peak of the storm. Human-triggering remains elevated into Tuesday with more snow forecast.
We'd appreciate any observations while you are out travelling on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Around 30 to 60 cm of snow has accumulated since the weekend, with more snow forecast into Tuesday. The snow has likely formed touchy storm slabs in sheltered areas and wind slabs in exposed terrain from strong southerly wind.
The storm snow overlies a weak layer formed during the cold spell in late December. The weak layer consists of sugary faceted grains as well as potentially feathery surface hoar found in areas sheltered from the wind. In high-elevation terrain exposed to the wind, the snow likely overlies a hard wind-affected surface.
A weak layer of faceted grains may be found above a widespread melt-freeze crust that formed in early December. This layer is likely found anywhere from 80 to 200 cm deep. This layer was the culprit of large, destructive avalanches in December for the neighbouring Sea to Sky region. It has been most reactive between 1700 and 2100 m.
The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.
Terrain and Travel
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
- Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried weak layers.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Touchy storm and wind slabs have formed from the recent 30 to 60 cm of snow. Wind slabs are likely found in wind-affected terrain from strong southerly wind and storm slabs are found in terrain sheltered from the wind. These slabs will likely remain touchy, as they sit on weak snow or hard surfaces.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer of faceted grains above a hard melt-freeze crust may be found around 80 to 200 cm deep. This layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. All the recent snow is loading this weak layer, increasing the likelihood of triggering it. Humans are most likely to trigger it where it is spatially shallow, for example in thin, rocky snowpack areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 4th, 2022 4:00PM
