Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 10th, 2022–Mar 11th, 2022

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Vancouver Island.

New snow will soften riding conditions but increase the potential of triggering an avalanche.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 30 km/h west wind, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level 500 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 700 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 to 30 cm, 50 km/h southeast wind, treeline temperature -2 C.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with early-morning snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches were reported. Looking forward, new slabs are expected to progressively form as the snow accumulates. The slabs may be easy to trigger if the snow doesn't bond well to the hard melt-freeze crust.

Snowpack Summary

Around 10 to 20 cm of new snow will fall with strong southwest wind, forming new wind slabs in exposed terrain. The snow will fall onto a widespread hard melt-freeze crust found across the region. The crust is thickest at low elevations and on sun-exposed slopes. The crust may not exist on high alpine terrain on north aspects. The new snow may not bond well to this crust.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow and strong southwest wind will load lee terrain features, forming new wind slabs. These slabs may start thin but could be touchy, particularly where they sit on a hard and smooth melt-freeze crust.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2