Avalanche Forecast

Good

Freezing level dropping to valley bottoms overnight and not expected to rise above 600 metres on Saturday, or for the rest of the forecast period. Northwest winds developing on Saturday as cloud and very light precipitation move into the region from the coast. There is a chance of a sunny break on Saturday afternoon. 5-10 cm of snow is expected on Sunday combined with strong Westerly winds. Expect a break in the precipitation during the day on Monday, followed by another 5-10 cm of snow on Monday night combined with strong Southwest winds.

There are no new reports of avalanches. The large (size 3.5) natural avalanche reported earlier in the week from the SE aspect of Mt Ymir was found to have released on the mid-December DPWL (deep persistent weak layer) rather than the mid-January PWL (persistent weak layer) that we initially thought was the sliding layer.

Overnight freezing down to valley bottoms has created supportive melt-freeze crusts that have been reported on all aspects up to about 2400 metres. A new layer of surface hoar has been reported to be developing. The top 5-10 cm of surface snow has been moist during the day due to strong solar radiation. The mid-January weak layer of buried surface hoar is down about 20-50 cm and continues to give planar results in snow profile tests. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar layer is down 50 cm in low snowpack areas and down about 100 cm in deeper snowpack areas.