Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Thursday

The beautiful weather we've been seeing over the past few days will start to change as a dominating upper ridge begins to break down, and turn to a warm Southerly flow. A series of systems caught in this flow will affect the region through to Friday. Tuesday: Continued sunny, cloudless skies with light ridgetop winds from the SW. Freezing levels could reach 3000 m. A temperature inversion may redevelop bringing warmer alpine temperatures through the night. Treeline temperatures steady near +6 C. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with possible afternoon rain showers. Treeline temperatures near +10, with freezing levels 3000 m. Thursday: Possible 30-40 mm of precipitation (mix rain and snow) through the day, with freezing levels falling to 1500 m. Ridgetop winds moderate from the West.

On Sunday one skier triggered slab avalanche was reported. This occurred on a North aspect @1950, running 40 m wide and 100 m in length. Other observations from he field have indicated many loose wet slides from steep solar aspects up to size 2. Last week's storm snow is now fairly well settled which has scaled avalanche activity way back. The only avalanche activity reported Saturday was from a high elevation NW facing slope that failed naturally producing a size 2.5 avalanche.

Mild temperatures and spring-like conditions continue to drive rapid settlement of last week's storm snow. A sun crust exists on solar aspects, while Northerly slopes host dry, wintery conditions down to 1400 m. Below the surface, the upper pack seems to be settling quickly. This includes an average of 100 cm overlying the March 26th interface .The March 26 interface consists of a melt/freeze crust on all aspects except true north treeline and alpine, where small surface hoar (5mm) is present in sheltered places. The bond at this interface is gaining strength, with lingering concerns on true south aspects where the crust is thickest and where the surface hoar lurks. The snow at lower elevations has become moist and heavy during the warm sunny days, then re-freezing at night creating true spring like conditions. The persistent early February surface hoar lingers deep in the snowpack and may once again become a player mid-week when the region goes several days without a good overnight refreeze or recovery. Concern remains with heavy triggers (cornice), step down avalanches and rapid loading from intense precipitation, strong winds or sun.