Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
Confidence
Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Sunny conditions are expected on Wednesday with treeline temperatures around -15C in the afternoon and light northerly wind in the alpine. Sunny conditions continue for Thursday and Friday with treeline temperatures remaining around -15C during the afternoon and light to moderate alpine wind from the northwest.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, ski cutting produced numerous size 1-1.5 storm slabs. These slabs were typically 15-20 cm thick and were reactive in the alpine and at treeline. One natural was also observed from a steep, unskiable terrain feature. On Wednesday, recently formed wind slabs may still be reactive to human triggering. With the winds recently switching directions, wind slabs should be expected on a variety of aspects. Persistent slab avalanches also remain an ongoing concern. Buried weak layers are creating a low probably, high consequence problem for the region. Extra caution is recommended in shallow snowpack areas of the region.
Snowpack Summary
15-20 cm of new snow has buried a variable old snow surface which consists of heavily wind scoured surfaces or old wind slabs in exposed terrain, surface hoar in sheltered terrain, and/or widespread faceted old snow. Recent moderate winds from a variety of directions is expected to have redistributed some of this new snow in wind exposed terrain. The mid pack appears to be variable throughout the region and the structure is dependant on snow depth. In deeper snowpack areas, the snowpack appears to be well settled and right side up with isolated concerns for the mid-December weak layer. In shallow snowpack areas and lower elevations, the snowpack is heavily faceted and there are concerns for the mid-December weak facet layer as well as old faceted crusts deeper in the snowpack and a weakness at the bottom of the snowpack. Due to inconsistencies in snowpack structure throughout the region, the snowpack needs to be treated with respect and further investigated at a local scale in your riding area.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3