Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 3rd, 2016 8:52AM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs.
rbuhler,
Avalanche Canada
The primary concern Monday is wind slabs in alpine terrain immediately lee of ridge crest and fragile cornices. Be cautious as you poke out into wind affected terrain.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A weak pacific storm system is expected to bring unsettled conditions with light flurries to the region over the next few days. On Sunday overnight and Monday, light flurries are possible but should not yield more than a couple centimeters of new snow. Treeline temperatures are forecast to peak around -5C and alpine winds are expected to be moderate to strong from the SW. Light intermittent flurries may continue Monday afternoon but sunny breaks are also possible. There is a lot of uncertainty for Tuesday and Wednesday with one model showing mainly dry conditions and another showing 10cm of snowfall. Freezing levels are being forecast to be anywhere from 500m to 1500m. With the current weather uncertainty, be sure to watch the weather forecast closely over the next few days. The Mountain Weather Forecast at www.avalanche.ca/weather is published each morning at 4am so check it out before you head out for the day.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported over the weekend but sluffing is expected to have occurred on steep south facing slopes. On Friday control work produced loose dry avalanches to size 1 on E and NE aspects. On Wednesday control work produced a size 2 storm slab on a high elevation east facing feature.
Snowpack Summary
Recent mild temperatures have helped the surface snow to settle a bit, at least at upper elevations. The upper snowpack consists of around 40 cm of old settled storm snow that rests on 10 cm of cold facets. This interface has been producing moderate to hard shears in recent snowpack tests. In wind exposed terrain you're likely to find pencil hard wind slabs sitting on the facets, but out of the wind the old storm snow remains largely unconsolidated. Our field team was out traveling around the region last week and they found surprisingly little wind effected snow. It sounds like the story is a little different around Castle Mountain where upper elevation terrain has seen quite a bit of recent wind out of the west and now north.
Problems
Wind Slabs
In the last week, winds have been out of the southwest, west, and north. This has created both fresh wind slabs and cornices that are most problematic for folks traveling on or near ridge crest. Upcoming SW winds are expected to build new wind slabs.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading has created thin wind slabs. >Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions. >
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 4th, 2016 2:00PM
