Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 8th, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
Stephen Holeczi,
Conditions are improving, but there are a number of weak layers in the snowpack that still make triggering larger avalanches possible at treeline and above.
Summary
Weather Forecast
The inversion breaks down on Saturday with alpine temperatures in the -12C range. Expect more clouds and only a trace of snow during the day. Winds will be mainly light increasing in the afternoon.
On Sunday winds will pick up into the strong range from the SW with a few cm expected. More light snow expected early next week.
Snowpack Summary
Recent storm snow totals are 20-50 cm at treeline. This sits on a spotty stellar/surface hoar layer in some locations. Wind effect in open areas in the alpine. Two weak layers from early Dec persist 50-100 cm down. These have been generally unreactive but still giving hard sudden planar results. The Nov. 5 basal crust/facets are currently dormant.
Avalanche Summary
No new activity today besides some sz 1.5 explosive triggered thin wind slabs in the alpine at the ski hills. One notable size 2 skier remote on Mt. Hector South at treeline yesterday that was likely on one of the persistent layers in the snowpack. This shows that it is still possible to trigger in the right (or wrong) location.
Confidence
Due to the quality of field observations
Problems
Persistent Slabs
A spotty layer of stellars and surface hoar 25-50 cm down is most likely an issue in steep treeline terrain, but is present in some alpine locations. Two other layers from Dec persist and still produce hard sudden planar results.
- Convex features and steep unsupported slopes will be most prone to triggering.
- Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a piece of terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Previous winds have created slabs, however recent observations have only found them in specific alpine areas, and haven't been very reactive. Watch locally on your trip for slab formation. Some of these slabs will be buried under new snow.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 9th, 2021 4:00PM
