Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 11th, 2016 4:24PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Dry and Wind Slabs.

Grant Statham, Parks Canada

Banff Yoho Kootenay.

The weather is finally changing this week. Not much snow is expected, but the winds are forecast to be West, 50-70 km/hr in alpine areas on Tuesday. Heads-up for resulting windslabs up to size 2. A subtle change from the conditions of the past weeks.

Summary

Weather Forecast

The good news it that this strong ridge of high pressure is retreating, and this week we return to a more typical westerly flow which aligns the storm track over our area. The bad news is there's not much snow in the that flow. Expect overcast skies and trace amounts of snow for Tuesday along with moderate SW winds up high and temps from -5 to -10.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack has been static now for weeks, with little change other than the slow, ongoing process of facetting. Over time, this results in a gradual weakening of the snowpack beginning in shallow areas and the top 20cm of the snowpack. This is of little consequence until the next storm, when new snow will probably bond poorly these weak facets.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday in Kootenay National Park, ski tourers triggered two size 1.5 slab avalanches near to Vermillion Peak. Reports indicate these were windslabs resulting from the recent 10 cm of snow and wind, bonding poorly to a sun crust at 2500 meters.

Confidence

Problems

Loose Dry

The snow feels old. It is dry and becoming very facetted, meaning it has little in the way cohesion and sluffs easy. For people riding steep slopes, remember your sluff management, and ice climbers watch you don't get knocked off your feet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Although our area only received about 10 cm of snow earlier this week, rising winds above treeline have created isolated windslabs up to 30 cm deep, sometimes bonding poorly to the underlying suncrust or facets.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 12th, 2016 4:00PM