Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

The next Pacific frontal system will cross the South Coast on today resulting in strong wind and precipitation. Generally unsettled conditions are expected for Wednesday before another weak system affects the region Wednesday night or Thursday morning.Tuesday night:  Freezing levels at valley bottom. Precipitation, 5 to 10 cm, ridge top winds 40-60 Km/h  from the W.Wednesday: Freezing levels at valley bottom, trace of precipitation, ridge top winds 20-30 Km/h from the W.Thursday: Freezing level at valley bottom, 5 to 10cm of precipitation, ridge top winds  50-90 Km/h from the W.Friday:  Freezing level at valley bottom, no precipitation in the forecast, winds light, gusting to occasional 40 Km/h.

We're still seeing reports of large natural and explosive triggered avalanches throughout the forecast region. All are storm slab avalanches and occurred on all aspects and all elevation bands. Most running on the Feb. 10th facet/crust/surface hoar combo.

Recent snowfall amounts exceed 1.75m during the past week and has now settled into a storm slab with a typical thickness of 60-100cm. The storm slab is overlying a variety of old weak surfaces that developed during the past cold,dry spell. It consists of weak facets, surface hoar, a scoured crust, wind pressed snow, or any combination of these. A poor bond exists between the storm slab and these old surfaces.Of particular concern is the combination of buried facets on a crust being unusually reactive at tree line and below. Avalanche activity, whumpfing and snowpack tests at these elevations are showing easy sudden planar shear results on the facet/crust combo. Strong to extreme winds are redistributing the new snow into deeper, and denser wind slabs on lee slopes.The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-settled. Basal facets and depth hoar are likely to exist in some parts of the region, but triggering has become unlikely.