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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 20th, 2017–Nov 21st, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Careful evaluation of the snowpack and new  storm snow instabilities is required.  Reports of skier triggered avalanches in the surrounding neighborhood is a reminder to be cautious and conservative.More snow may be coming!!

Weather Forecast

Tuesday will see 10cm of snow by the end of the day, light to moderate SW winds, and -8 degrees. The snowfall increases Wednesday to Thursday bringing maybe 60-80 cm of snow, strong winds, and warm temperatures. It may get really warm and snow allot!

Snowpack Summary

25cm of new snow with Strong Westerly winds occurred Sunday. This rests on a previous old snow surface windslab combination, the Oct 31 crust approximately 50cm down, and a spotty distributed Oct 17 crust just off the ground at lower to treeline elevations. The storm snow instability will linger for a few days and deserves your respect.

Avalanche Summary

Monday's patrol observed numerous fresh size 2's mainly at treeline but also a few noted in lower alpine locations. They ranged from 35-45 degrees, 100m wide, 20-40cm deep, running to top or mid track.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The recent 25cm of snow will be reactive for a few days until it has had time to settle. This problem was active on Monday. More snow starting on Tuesday extending into Thursday may add to this problem.
Use caution in alpine and open treeline lees. Recent snowfall has created storm slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

The 25cm of new snow is enough to create loose avalanches in steep terrain or gullies. Extra heads up for ice climbers.
Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Sunday's storm had strong SW winds. Expect windslabs to have developed particularly on lee aspects.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2