Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 8th, 2017 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Dry and Wind Slabs.

mark herbison, Parks Canada

Jasper.

10cm of forecasted snow with light winds keeping the Avalanche Hazard at Moderate. If winds increase before Tuesday the Avalanche Hazard will rise with them. Stay tuned in to changing weather conditions in your area.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Snow starting late Sunday night and throughout Monday, up to 15cm. Winds are expected to be light during the storm then blow moderate from the NW on Tuesday as they bring back the cold dry air (below - 20). A temperature inversion was observed along the Parkway today, up to 10 degrees warmer at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is shallow, faceted and weak. The Nov. crust can still be found about 30 cm from ground but is faceting into large depth hoar. The upper half of the snowpack has layers of wind slabs.

Avalanche Summary

Within the past 48hrs, several Sz 2.5 slab and Sz 1.5 loose dry avalanches observed along the Icefields Parkway. Pockets of slab pulling out in cross loaded gullies, 30-40 degree slopes on Westerly aspects. Loose dry activity on all aspects and elevations.Recent cold temps have made free hanging ice brittle and is breaking off.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Problems

Loose Dry

Faceting of the surface snow is causing it to lose cohesion and release loose dry avalanches in steep terrain. Particularly concerning for ice-climbers in confined terrain.

Be very cautious with gully features.Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Cold temperatures and hard slab conditions make triggering less likely. Triggering from shallow spots or in loaded gullies remains a possibility.

Watch for areas of hard wind slab in steep alpine features.Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 9th, 2017 4:00PM