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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 26th, 2016–Jan 27th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Limit your exposure during periods of intense loading. Expect any slide to travel further and faster then expected and give yourself lots of room.

Weather Forecast

While models have come to an agreement, they now agree that we can expect less then we thought. Forecasts are for 8 to 12cms for Tuesday overnight and 20-30cm into the weekend. This is accompanied by transport speed winds (20+ kph). We can expect this to overload the snowpack but the overall intensity and timing is not clear. 

Snowpack Summary

Much will depend on the forecasted snow coming Tuesday evening and through Thursday. New snow will be sitting and/or transported onto weak sandwiched wind slab layers in the lee. Our concerns lie with the top 25cms of the existing snowpack. These are moderately reactive on a already weaken, faceted snowpack at exposed tree line and alpine features.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, west of Jasper townsite and just outside the boundary of the park, a size 2 skier accidental happened in the afternoon. In an established slide path, a pair of skiers were crossing the path when they heard a whumph. One skier was able to ski to the side but a second skier was caught and rode it out for 70ms. Average crown depth 75cms.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Previously buried windslabs will likely get overloaded quickly in any area where transport is happening in realtime. Users have to be very cautious with overhead hazards when traveling in or near avalanche terrain.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches should be expected in steep terrain, and may entrain significant amounts of snow in gully features.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2