Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 26th, 2016 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Limit your exposure during periods of intense loading. Expect any slide to travel further and faster then expected and give yourself lots of room.

Summary

Weather Forecast

While models have come to an agreement, they now agree that we can expect less then we thought. Forecasts are for 8 to 12cms for Tuesday overnight and 20-30cm into the weekend. This is accompanied by transport speed winds (20+ kph). We can expect this to overload the snowpack but the overall intensity and timing is not clear.Â

Snowpack Summary

Much will depend on the forecasted snow coming Tuesday evening and through Thursday. New snow will be sitting and/or transported onto weak sandwiched wind slab layers in the lee. Our concerns lie with the top 25cms of the existing snowpack. These are moderately reactive on a already weaken, faceted snowpack at exposed tree line and alpine features.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, west of Jasper townsite and just outside the boundary of the park, a size 2 skier accidental happened in the afternoon. In an established slide path, a pair of skiers were crossing the path when they heard a whumph. One skier was able to ski to the side but a second skier was caught and rode it out for 70ms. Average crown depth 75cms.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Previously buried windslabs will likely get overloaded quickly in any area where transport is happening in realtime. Users have to be very cautious with overhead hazards when traveling in or near avalanche terrain.

Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Loose dry avalanches should be expected in steep terrain, and may entrain significant amounts of snow in gully features.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 27th, 2016 4:00PM