Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 28th, 2015 8:32AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Warming forecast for the next few days will increase the Avalanche Danger, especially at higher elevations.Special thanks to the folks in Nelson and Kootenay Pass for their awesome MIN reports. You rock!

Summary

Weather Forecast

A dry ridge of high pressure will continue to bring clear skies and valley fog to the region for the forecast period. The strong inversion will continue until Monday with alpine temperature hovering at around 5' celcius while valley temperatures will remain well below freezing. Ridgetop winds should remain light to moderate from the northeast.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. This may speak to the lack of observations rather than actual conditions. Given the combination of solar radiation and warm temperatures at higher elevations, there has likely been a round of loose wet avalanche activity on steep, sun-exposed slopes.

Snowpack Summary

At treeline elevations, the snowpack appears to typically be 1-1.5m deep. Current snow surfaces likely include a mix of stubborn wind slabs in exposed higher elevation terrain, loose faceted snow and surface hoar in sheltered areas, and (depending on the time of day) moist snow or a re-frozen crust on steep solar aspects. In some parts of the region a thick hard crust is reported to exist just below the surface. For the time being, this hard crust is likely adding significant strength to the snowpack. That said, the combination of facets and surface hoar overlying a hard crust could become a reactive weak layer if it ever gets buried by new snow. There is also a thick crust from early-November in the middle of the snowpack. The limited reports we have received suggest that this crust is well bonded but you should investigate the snowpack in your local area before committing yourself to avalanche terrain. In general, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding snowpack structure throughout the region. If you have any observations to share, please submit them to our Mountain Information Network.

Problems

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet
Unseasonably warm temperatures and sun will increase the chances of loose wet avalanche activity on steep, sun-exposed slopes in the alpine and at treeline. Watch for conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: North.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Continued warm temperatures should help decrease the reactivity of recently formed wind slabs. Watch for triggering in steep, unsupported terrain, especially in spots where a hard underlying crust exists.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 29th, 2015 2:00PM

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