Avalanche Forecast

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The next storm pulse is expected to arrive Friday overnight or early Saturday morning. There is some model uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of the system but it looks like the wettest parts of the region could see 15-25mm of precipitation by Saturday evening. Afternoon freezing levels are expected to reach around 1600m and alpine winds should be strong from the southwest. Light precipitation is expected to continue Saturday overnight and Sunday morning with freezing levels around 1500m. Alpine winds should ease overnight and become light to moderate from the southwest on Sunday. The forecast for Monday is currently showing light precipitation in the morning and clearing in the afternoon.

No recent avalanche observations have been reported in the region but there is enough snow for avalanches at treeline and in the alpine. Storm slabs are expected to be the major concern on Saturday and will likely be widespread at higher elevations. These slabs will likely be stiffest and most reactive in wind loaded areas. Due to the current lack of regular observations, we cannot yet issue avalanche problems or danger ratings for the region. If you are out in the mountains, please send us your observations and help us improve the forecast.

Early season snowpack observations are still very limited in the region but the threshold for avalanches has been exceeded at treeline and in the alpine. Snowpack depth is reported to be 120-150cm at treeline. A thick crust from mid-November is down around 70cm and recent reports suggest the layer is generally well bonded to the adjacent snow. Below this crust layer the snowpack is reported to be moist or wet to the ground at treeline elevation. The snowpack tapers off drastically below treeline and the threshold for avalanches is likely around 1700m elevation.