Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A low pressure system from the South West will pass through the area Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning bringing 10 to 20cm of moist snow to the region. Freezing levels will fluctuate between 500 m overnight to 1000 min the afternoon on Sunday. Monday the freezing level will again rise to 1000 m with cloudy skies and the possibility of flurries

Numerous reports from across the forecast region yesterday of skier accidental, skier remote, skier controlled and natural avalanches up to size 2.5. In some cases, avalanches were triggered within the storm snow and then stepped down to the early January surface hoar layer. Storm and wind slabs will take time to settle and bond. Recent loading has added add mass and sensitivity to the deeper early January persistent weak layer. Until the snowpack has time to adjust to the new load, avalanches on this interface will be large and destructive.

Recent snowfall combined with strong ridge top winds formed storm slabs at all elevations on these past few days. Dense snow now overlies colder, less-dense snow deposited earlier in the storm. On solar aspects, the new storm snow is resting on a crust around 50-85 cm below the surface, that may also have surface hoar. This surface hoar layer, formed at the beginning of January.  Recent testing has shown this layer to be reactive, especially in places with no previous skier or rider activity. It  appears to be most prominent at treeline and below, and on all aspects. A melt freeze crust from December buried anywhere from 80 to 130cm across the region is still producing significant results in snowpack tests. No recent avalanches have been reported at this interface, however, it is worth keeping an eye on. With forecast warming and continued storm loading it may become more problematic. Below this, the snowpack is generally well settled and strong.