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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 12th, 2021–Mar 13th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Vancouver Island.

No new avalanches have been observed or reported over the past forecast period.

Past Weather

Freezing levels climbed to 1500 meters for a short period and direct solar aspect surfaces became moist. Overall the snowpack remained cohesive as warming and solar effect was brief.

Weather Forecast

Temps and freezing levels will slowly begin to rise as the ridge of high pressure to the east of the forecast area begins to break down. Beginning late Saturday, South East winds will begin to increase and light precipitation will start. Forecast models indicate the precipitation to be focused to the northern half of the forecast area.

Terrain Advice

Caution when transitioning into North aspect terrain with areas of wind loaded snow and steep convex roll features.Caution travelling either above or below cornice features.

Snowpack Summary

A period of overnight clearing and cooling promoted the formation of surface hoar, On solar aspects the surface hoar was destroyed. but is still present on north aspects. Solar aspect terrain surfaces became moist and a crust formed during overnight cooling.The upper snowpack continues to settle and a facet crust combination can be found down 100 to 150 cm. Terrain exposed to the wind is stripped and scoured. The persistent slab from February is now down over 200 centimeters and is dormant and currently non reactive to testing. Below the snowpack is dense and well settled.

Snowpack Details

  • Surface: Surface hoar on north aspects, thin crust on solar aspects.
  • Upper: Settling new snow between 100 and 150 centimeters.
  • Mid: Old unreactive crusts, overall dense and well settled.
  • Lower: Well settled and dense.

Confidence

Moderate - Additional forecaster field observations, uncertainty with Sundays precipitation amounts.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Found on predominantly North aspects. This avalanche problem was formed during the past storms strong south west winds and has settled and bonded. **Location:** North East thru to North West aspects and found in both the Alpine and Tree line. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem is unlikely to possible from light loads such as skiers. Natural avalanches are very unlikely. **Size:** If triggered expect these avalanches to be large size 2, and on isolated terrain features very large, size 3 .

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Storm Slabs

This new avalanche problem will start to materialize on Sunday as up to 20cm of snow is forecasted . Location: Alpine and Tree line. Possibility: Triggering of this avalanche problem is likely from light loads such as skiers. Natural avalanches are possible. Size: If triggered expect these avalanches to be small size 1, and on isolated terrain features large, size 2.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1