Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Friday night: Clear. Light northwest wind. Alpine temperature around -25 C.

Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. Moderate northwest to southwest wind. Alpine high around -18 C.

Sunday: Increasing cloud with flurries starting in the afternoon. Strong southwest wind. High of -10 C.

Monday: 10-20 cm new snow. Strong southwest wind. High of -7 C.

On Thursday, small (size 1) natural and artificially triggered wind slabs were reported in the alpine.

A few surprisingly deep older crowns were observed between Fernie and Sparwood on Friday. These suspected persistent slab avalanches likely ran on the early December crust around the same time as the explosive triggered size 3 persistent slab reported on December 27th.

Recent winds have created wind slabs on a variety of aspects and created a lot of variability in the upper snowpack.

The most notable layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that was formed in early December and is now down 80-150 cm. The most recent reported avalanche on this layer was on December 27th. Activity on this layer has been sporadic. It has generally been triggered on steep, rocky slopes, with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

This layer has created a low likelihood, high consequence scenario which is best managed through conservative terrain choices and disciplined backcountry travel techniques.

• Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
• Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.