Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
There is a low probability to trigger high consequence large avalanches on deeply buried weak layers. Be thoughtful with your terrain selection, especially in shallow snowpack areas and around steep, rocky features.
Confidence
High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast
Weather Forecast
The weather pattern is changing as the upper ridge of high pressure over B.C. has flatten allowing the Pacific system to move over the province.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear with cloudy periods, no precipitation, 30-40 km/h westerly winds, low alpine temperature -11 C with freezing level at valley bottom.
SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries beginning in the afternoon, accumulation 1 to 3 cm during the day and 10 to 15 cm overnight, 30-40 km/h westerly winds, high alpine temperature -5 C with freezing level at valley bottom.
MONDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 20-30 km/h southwesterly winds, high alpine temperature -7 C with freezing level at valley bottom.
TUESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with scattered flurries, accumulation 3 to 5 cm, high alpine temperature -12 C with freezing level at valley bottom.
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanches have been reported.
The last report of deep persistent slab avalanches are from Jan 21, when some very large avalanches were triggered by cornice falls and wind slab avalanches. Although deep persistent slab activity has recently tapered, it could still be possible to trigger large avalanches in steep, rocky terrain.
Snowpack Summary
Most areas are heavily wind affected. In the most sheltered areas, you may find surface hoar crystals on the surface. A melt-freeze crust may be found on steep sun-exposed slopes.Â
The primary layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that formed in early December and is now 100 to 150 cm deep. This layer is found most areas through the region, but with varying test results. Recently, the layer has shown more reactivity in shallow snowpack areas.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
- Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
- Carefully evaluate bigger terrain features on an individual basis before committing to them.
- Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
A concerning weak layer of faceted grains above a melt-freeze crust is around 100 to 150 cm deep, which has produced large avalanches. This problem has been less active recently, but we have been reminded multiple times in the last month that this layer could remain a concern all winter. Thin rocky start zones are the most likely place to trigger this layer. Snow loading from new snow and/or wind, daytime warming, cornice falls, and step-downs from smaller avalanches could increase the chance of an avalanche on this layer. Learn more about this crust and how to deal with it in this forecasters' blog.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5