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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 9th, 2021–Dec 10th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Vancouver Island.

Stay alert to changing conditions. Avalanche hazard will increase at upper elevations as snow accumulates. Dial back terrain if you are seeing 20 cm of new snow.

Confidence

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

A fast-moving storm with intense snowfall and fierce wind moves in Friday 

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, light west wind, treeline temperatures dropping to -5 C, freezing level dropping to 500 m.

Friday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow starting mid-morning as a potent storm moves in, wind becoming southwest and strong, treeline temperatures rising to -1 C by end of day, freezing level rising to 800 m.

Saturday: Cloudy, 30-60 cm of snow expected to accumulate overnight and into the morning, strong southwest wind, treeline temperatures rising to near 0 C overnight and dropping to -4 C by midday, freezing level rising to 1300 m overnight during heaviest precipitation and dropping to 500 m by end of day. 

Sunday: Mainly cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, moderate southwest wind, treeline temperatures near -4 C, freezing level rising to 600 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported. 

Snowpack Summary

A potent storm moves in Friday bringing 5-15 cm of new snow and strong southwest wind by late afternoon. This is expected to build increasingly reactive storm slabs at upper elevations. 

We suspect there may be surface hoar or facets above the early December crust that could present a persistent slab problem with rapid loading from the incoming storm. Send us your observations of what is above the crust where you are travelling using the Mountain Information Network. 

Recent indications of the region's snowpack suggest that snow depths in the alpine are 150- 200 cm. At treeline, snow depths taper dramatically to 60-120 cm. Below treeline is below the threshold for avalanches.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow is expected to rapidly accumulate on Friday, accompanied by strong southwest winds and a gradual rise in temperature. Anticipate the development of a touchy, widespread storm slab problem as snow accumulates. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2