Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainties in both the snowpack structure and the weather forecast limit our confidence.

Unstable airmass is causing uncertainty with the timing and intensity of convective showers into Friday. 

Wednesday night: Light flurries possible 5-10 cm, light southerly wind, freezing levels should drop to valley bottom, treeline lows just below zero.

Thursday: Overcast with flurries 5-15 cm, light southwest wind (could get gusty at times), freezing levels 1300-1500 m, treeline highs around -1.

Friday: Light flurries 5-10 cm should ease overnight, mostly sunny day, freezing levels will be at valley bottom at night and rise to 1300 m during the day treeline highs of -2.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, light northerly winds, treeline highs of -2.

On Wednesday morning storm slabs were still reactive to explosives and ski cuts in the size 1-2 range. A widespread storm slab avalanche cycle with size 2-3 avalanches on a variety of aspects and elevations was reported from the region on Tuesday. Check out this recent MIN report taken from within the ski area boundary looking out of bounds towards the Mammoth Droppings.

The Lizard Range has received over 90 mm of water from this system which has translated to about 40-60 cm of heavy, upside down type snow at treeline elevation. Convective snow/rain showers could add 10-20 cm to the snowpack on Thursday. Snow has generally been rain-soaked below 1600 m. All of this new load sits on a variety of old surfaces like sun crusts, freezing rain crusts, old wind-pressed snow or cold, weak snow crystals on shaded aspects. Moderate to strong southwest winds have likely contributed to cornice growth as well.

Storm slabs or loose wet avalanches may step down to old persistent layers such as the surface hoar layer buried at the end of January. The distribution of this layer is spotty in nature but has produced avalanches and snowpack test results in the past week, mostly in the Flathead. While it does not appear to be as widespread or reactive in the Lizard Range, it has been found in some locations. 

The lower snowpack is well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer from early-December found near the bottom of the snowpack. It is currently considered dormant but with big rain on snow events, operators will be on guard. Check out the forecaster blog for more information. 

• If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
• Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
• Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
• Extra caution is needed around cornices under the current conditions.