Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Tuesday: Sunny / Light-moderate northwesterly winds / Average temperature at treeline -20 C.Wednesday: Sunny / Light southerly winds / Average temperature at treeline -15 C.Thursday: Cloudy with isolated flurries / Light easterly winds / Average temperature at treeline -15 C.

No recent avalanche observations have been reported in this region, however, the likelihood of human triggered avalanches may increase if the winds increase to moderate.

If the winds increase to moderate Monday night, there may be fresh wind slabs in lee features below ridge tops in the alpine. The cold temperatures will have promoted surface faceting, which probably means the top layer of snow is soft in sheltered areas. Treeline snow depths around Elkford are only around 60 cm. I suspect they are slightly higher in places like the Flathead, but generally conditions are lean. Threshold snow depths for avalanches have been exceeded in the alpine and at treeline, but not below treeline. In shallow areas, the snowpack is most likely facetted (sugary) throughout, and any crusts have probably broken down already. In deeper areas, you can probably find the mid-November crust buried under half a metre or so of snow. Early season hazards such as stumps, rocks, and open creeks are still a major concern.