Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Overnight and Monday: Snow starting overnight combined with strong Southwest winds. Expect 10-15 cm by morning and another 10-15 cm during the day. Chance of locally enhanced snowfall amounts. Freezing level at the valley bottoms overnight rising to about 1500 metres during the day.Tuesday: Snow ending by morning. Moderate Southwest winds and a chance of broken skies between storms. Freezing level rising to about 1500 metres.Wednesday: 5-10 cm of snow from another strong pulse of Pacific moisture moving quickly across the region. Gradual clearing during the day in the wake of the storm.

Skiers remotely triggered a size 2.0 avalanche in the storm snow on a South aspect in the alpine on Saturday. Snowmobiles remotely triggered an avalanche on a northerly aspect as they climbed near a slope that may have had some wind loading. I suspect that the storm slab is settling and becoming more cohesive. Forecast new snow and wind loading are expected to add a new load to this recent storm slab that may increase the sensitivity to human triggers and may result in natural avalanches.

A report from an open treeline area in Harvey Pass on Saturday showed the storm slab to be 50-65 cm of soft snow that was gaining cohesion; the ski penetration was only 15 cm. There is a very soft layer of facetted crystals below the storm slab that is not failing naturally, but is expected to become more unstable as the forecast new snow continues to add a load. Remote triggering by snowmobiles and skiers continues to be reported. The mid snowpack is strong and supportive. A deep persistent layer of facets and depth hoar near the base of the snowpack has remained dormant to this point, but may become a concern with additional load and stress on the snowpack.