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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 7th, 2018–Jan 8th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Warming, snow and wind are all adding stress to touchy weak layers.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Strong to gale south-west winds. Flurries. Alpine temperature near 0.TUESDAY: Strong south-west winds. Around 5 cm snow. Alpine temperature near 0. A further 10-15 cm snow overnight.WEDNESDAY: Light south-west winds. Light snow. Alpine temperature near -6.

Avalanche Summary

Explosives triggered several size 1.5-2.5 storm slabs on Saturday. Many large whumpfs and cracks continue to be reported, especially at and below treeline, indicating the persistent slab problem remains touchy. Persistent slab activity is likely to increase over the next couple of days.On Thursday, a skier-triggered size 2 slab on a north-east aspect at 1975 m near Fernie caught and partially buried four people. Check out the details here.

Snowpack Summary

A touchy weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found down about 40-70 cm. It is found at and below treeline, and seems particularly touchy between about 1600-1800 m. As temperatures warm, the slab above this weakness may become even easier to trigger remotely or with the weight of a person.Wind slabs and cornices can be found at ridge top. Deeper in the snowpack, an early season rain crust and sugary facets make up the picture. It is possible that a surface avalanche could step down to these layers, creating a surprisingly large event.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Weak layers are buried within a prime depth range for human triggering. These are most prevalent at and below treeline. Warming, snow and wind are all adding stress to these layers.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Stay off convex or unsupported slopes at and below treeline.Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds or shooting cracks.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs can be found at treeline and alpine elevations.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.If triggered, wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2