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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 13th, 2019–Mar 14th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Danger ratings assume a mostly cloudy day. If the sun is strong for more than a couple of hours, increase avalanche danger to CONSIDERABLE.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

WEDNESADY NIGHT: Flurries with possible accumulations from trace to 5 cm in localized areas. Alpine temperature low -10C. Light northwest winds. THURSDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperature high -8C. Moderate westerly winds at ridgetops.FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Alpine temperature reaching -4C. Light southwest winds.SATURDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods. Dry. Alpine temperature reaching -2C. Light to moderate west winds. Freezing level between 1500m and 1800m.

Avalanche Summary

Several small (up to size 1.5) storm slabs avalanches (natural and skier triggers) were reported Tuesday in the Lizard Range. With this recent round of precipitations, storm slabs are likely to be remain reactive on exposed terrain at treeline and alpine.

Snowpack Summary

25-30 cm of storm snow now sits over various surfaces such as old and firm wind slabs in the alpine and open areas at treeline on all aspects. A widespread sun / temperature crust is also found hidden under this new snow on south facing slopes. Isolated pockets of surface hoar crystals have also been observed at the surface on north-facing slopes around 2000m right before this storm rolled in. The mid-snowpack consists of sugary faceted grains (facets) of different hardness. Two older layers of surface hoar still exist down 55-80 and down 95-150 around 1600-1900m .The lower snowpack is generally well-settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent new snow may still be reactive, especially where it is wind-affected. Watch also for slopes being impacted by the sun.
The best powder will be found in sheltered locations at or below treeline.If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be increasingly cautious on sun exposed slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2