Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

We’re moving into a dryer period that is expected to be with us for the foreseeable future. Temperatures look reasonable for the middle of February and there is a lot of sun in the forecast through Wednesday.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Alpine low temperature -10 C. Northwest wind 15-30 km/hr. Freezing level valley bottom.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine high temperature -8 C. Northwest wind 10-25 km/hr. Freezing level 800 m.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Alpine high temperature -4 C. Southwest wind 10-15 km/hr. Freezing level 1300 m.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny with clouds. Alpine high temperature -2 C. Southwest wind 15-30 km/hr. Freezing level 1500 m.

On Friday the upper 20 cm of storm snow was sensitive to human triggering on steep rollover features. The trend continued Saturday with sluffing in steep terrain and reactive pockets of wind slab. This MIN report provides details of a small skier triggered avalanche on Mt. Thar. Wind slab avalanches were reported on steep north to east facing terrain earlier in the week, new snow may be covering older wind slabs.

On Wednesday, two cases of wind slab avalanches stepping down to deep persistent layers were reported: one was skier triggered from a thin spot in an aggressive north facing alpine feature (link to MIN report), the other a natural size 2.5 on a convex southeast aspect in an open area around treeline. 

On February 9th In the neighboring Sea to Sky region, a very large (size 3.5) avalanche occurred on near Whistler on a steep north face at 2400 m. These avalanches are suspected to have failed on a layer of facets on a crust from late November. These events demonstrate the ongoing need for caution in aggressive terrain, particularly in areas where deep instabilities remain.

10-20 cm recent storm snow is wind affected in alpine and open treeline areas forming fresh wind slabs. In sheltered locations, the new snow covered a thin layer of surface hoar (in the north of the region). On solar aspects surface hoar has been observed on a sun crust which is a problematic setup. We haven't heard of any surface hoar in the South of the region yet.

Previous to this storm wind redistributed recent snow producing wind slabs in the alpine and upper treeline vegetation bands. In more sheltered terrain up to 30 cm of less dense snow can be found. Solar aspects have a thin sun crust under the storm snow. There are a couple of crusts deeper in the snowpack, down 30-40 cm and 60-110. The mid-pack is considered to be well settled and strong. 

In the north part of the region (ie. Goldbridge/Duffey/Hurley), a few deep instabilities exist in the snowpack, including a weak basal facet crust complex. Sporadic avalanche activity on these layers keep them on our radar. In the south of the region, including the Coquihalla and Manning areas, we currently have no concerns about deeply buried weak layers.

• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.