Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Sunday night: Cloudy with continuing snowfall bringing 5-20 cm of new snow to treeline and alpine, increasing with elevation and proximity to the coast. Light rain below about 1700 metres. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level peaking at 2000 metres and descending again through the morning.

Monday: Cloudy with continuing snowfall bringing about 10-25 cm of new snow, increasing with elevation and proximity to the coast. Light to moderate south winds. Alpine high temperatures around -3 with freezing levels to 1400 metres.

Tuesday: Cloudy with increasing snowfall bringing 10-30 cm of new snow, increasing with elevation and proximity to the coast. Moderate to strong south winds. Alpine high temperatures around -5 with freezing levels to 1200 metres.

Wednesday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Light southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -5 with freezing levels to 1200 metres.

Observations from the weekend storm are still limited, but initial reports from Saturday described touchy new slabs reacting easily to ski cuts on steeper features up to treeline on all aspects. Alpine elevations were largely avoided with visibility obscured. Fracture depths of up to 30 cm were observed.

Looking forward, continuing snowfall is expected to maintain similar conditions on Monday, with new snow and associated avalanche hazards increasing with elevation.

5-20 cm of new snow, increasing with elevation, is expected to fall in the region by the end of the day Monday. This will cover rain-wetted surfaces below about 1700 metres and add to roughly 15-70 cm of snow from the weekend storm, again increasing with elevation and with proximity to the coast.

The storm buried recent wind slabs and wind-affected surfaces in exposed areas at all elevations and soft, low density snow in sheltered areas. It adds to just over a meter of storm snow that has fallen in the last week.

A pair of weak surface hoar layers from mid and late December existed about 70 to 160 cm below the surface in advance of the storm. These layers were given a good loading test at most elevations by the storm, but still warrant caution around steep, sheltered slopes and shallow rocky areas. 

A layer of sugary faceted grains and hard melt-freeze crust exists near the base of the snowpack in inland parts of the region, such as the Spearhead Range. This layer also received a good loading test by the storm, but continues to warrant avoidance of shallow rocky start zones in the alpine and upper treeline.

• Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
• Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
• Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.