Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Past Weather
Several moderate snowfall events earlier in the week have bonded due to warm winter air temperatures and rain (including rain in Alpine) which has helped facilitate bonding.
Weather Forecast
A large storm cycle of extreme precipitation, wind and freezing level fluctuations is expected over the next 48 HRS. Saturday - warm temps from Friday will subside and rain will transition to snow (10cm-60cm), Extreme Winds will relocate snow to Easterly Aspects, Temps O degrees - minus 7, Freezing Level 700M Sunday - Another 20cm - 50 cm of snow is expected, Extreme Winds will lessen throughout the day but expect more snow transport to multiple aspects as wind direction varies widely during the storm cycle on Sunday, Temps -1 to -7 degrees, Freezing Level 800M dropping to 400M later in the day. Monday - More "Classic West Coast Weather" - Forecast models approximate between 10cm -15 cm of snow and later in the day a transition to 10mm - 30mm of rain as the air temperature goes from minus 6 degrees to +2 at 1500M of elevation
Terrain Advice
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended at Alpine and Treeline Elevation bands.
Snowpack Summary
The snowpack was generally well settled will very little information regarding avalanches occurring. The major warming trend, coupled with 50+mm of rain and up to another 50+cm of new storm snow over the next 24 HRS we could expect major volatility within the snowpack.
Snowpack Details
- Surface: 50+ MM of Rain and another 50MM of snow is forecast in the next 24-36 HRS leaving the upper snowpack and Storm Snow highly unstable
- Upper: Generally well settled however new rain and major warming events may lessen consolidation, particularly on storm snow interfaces from earlier in the week and overnight into the weekend
- Mid: Well bonded midpack that does include two weaker layers (Facet layer and Surface Hoar layer)
- Lower: Well Settled except on exposed rocky cliffs and rocky outcroppings where basal facets are lingering in Alpine
Confidence
Moderate - Weather models in agreement, moderate field weather and snowpack observations, limited weather station data
Avalanche Problems
Cornices
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Wet Slabs
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Storm Slabs
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1