Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

The warm air should break down on Friday.  Freezing levels will progressively fall to around 1000m by Friday night.  A mix of sun and cloud is expected during the day and alpine winds are expected to be moderate from the SW.  On Saturday, a weak trough crosses the south coast.  Mostly cloudy conditions, light flurries, and light alpine winds are expected. Freezing levels should be around 1000m.  Sunday should see a mix of sun and cloud, light alpine wind, and freezing levels around 1000m.

No new slab avalanches were observed on Wednesday but a couple size 1 loose wet sluffs were ski cut. Reports from Tuesday of natural and explosive triggered slab avalanches up to size 2.5 on leeward slopes. Loose activity was also reported on steep solar aspects. Natural avalanches are not expected on Friday. Ski triggering is unlikely in areas that are capped with a supportive surface crust but caution is required anywhere the crust remains breakable.

A thick supportive surface crust is capping the snowpack.  Below the crust is the recent storm snow which is around 50-70cm deep and sits on a previously variable snow surface that included wind affected surfaces, a freezing rain crust or sun crust, and/or surface hoar or sugary facets in sheltered terrain. In the middle of the snowpack we might find the mid-December surface hoar or crust/facet weak layers. These are now typically buried 1m or more. The old surface hoar layer may be found in sheltered shady areas at and below treeline, while the slightly deeper crust/facet layer is expected to be more widespread but also more variable.