Avalanche Forecast

Moderate- few alpine but good treeline and below treeline observations, weather forecast models mainly in agreement. 

Avoid wind loaded slopes and features with north-west aspects that gather wind transported snow.  New snow will increase the size/hazard that exists on the wind slabs created Sunday, so keep an eye on actual new snow amounts Monday-Wednesday. Loose snow sloughs can entrain additional snow adding to hazard.  Avoid slopes that will magnify  loose avalanches like gullies and bowls below steep terrain.

Rain up into the alpine Friday saturated the upper snow pack.  Cooling temps Saturday brought new snow to elevations above 1000 m (2-10cm). Sunday 5-15 cm of new snow fell in the mountains with larger amounts in the west and south regions and less to the north.  Strong (up to 70k mph) winds from the south-east accompanied the new snowfall.

Small size 1-1.5 loose dry avalanches were reported with control work on Mt Washington Sunday, running on the skier compacted crust down approximately 10cm.  Intentional ski cuts in open treeline terrain elsewhere produced small to very small wind slab avalanches up to size 1 on the lee of wind loaded rolls and features running on the new crust created by last Fridays rain event.  

Surface - Variable surface conditions from moderate density new snow in wind sheltered zones to exposed crusts on wind stripped alpine and treeline ridges. Upper - New snow, blown by Sundays winds, has formed firm wind slabs on lee (north-west facing)  features in the alpine and exposed treeline.   Approx 1-15cm on new snow fell on the forecast area Sunday, capping the newly formed rain crust  from Fridays rain event.  The bond between the new snow and crust was poor in test on Sunday on significantly steep terrain.Mid - The new snow and crust buried on Jan 7th is now bridging and limiting concerns surrounding the mid Dec and mid Nov crusts. The moist mid snowpack seams very stable.Lower - Well settled.

Warm temps and slightly high freezing levels Monday morning will begin to drop by mid day bringing new moist snow.  Tuesday-Wednesday will see increasing snowfall and very low freezing levels and temps.  This new snow is very welcome to our lower than seasonal snowpack and should provide excellent conditions and powder. Mon - 10-20 cm of new snow. Winds light to moderate south to south east trending to north west. Freezing levels of 1400-800 m Tues - 2-6 cm of snow.  Winds light to moderate south west-north west. Freezing levels of 550-950 m Wed - 0-15 cm of new snow. Winds light west to south east. Freezing levels of 175-850 m