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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2018–Jan 15th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

A cycle of small, Loose Wet Avalanches was the result of the temperature inversion, clear skies and calm winds today. The temperatures look to remain warm for the next two days at least.

Weather Forecast

Pacific air will continue to override cooler air in the valleys producing a temperature inversion through to Tuesday.  Winds should remain light from the SW through Monday until late in the day Tuesday when they will increase and potentially bring some light flurries or rain.

Snowpack Summary

10-15cm of recent snow has blown into thin slabs TL and above. Old slabs, 10-40cm deeper, sit on a weak layer of facets or surface hoar TL and above. In sheltered areas the new snow sits a weak,faceted upper snowpack at all elevations. A strong mid snowpack crust is providing strength but is weakening. The lower snowpack continues to lose strength.

Avalanche Summary

A cycle of loose wet avalanches started on steep south slopes at midday and followed the sun onto West slopes into the mid afternoon. The inversion, calm winds, and strong sun all factored into these events which originated as high as 2900m and ran up to sz 2 in confined features. Only one slab was observed to be triggered by all of this activity.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Pockets of old, buried slab are found in exposed areas. These sit on weak, faceted snow that lacks strength, and may fail, to mid-pack depths. Treat all wind exposed areas with care but approach larger, uniform features and thin areas with caution.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Sunday's cycle of these will likely result in crust limiting the further potential of this problem however temperatures seem a bit uncertain and if the sun is out again, it is worth taking note.
Avoid ice climbs exposed to steep rocky terrain on solar aspects during the middle of the day.If triggered the loose wet sluffs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

The recent snow was redistributed into thin, spotty slabs in exposed areas. These slabs sit on freshly buried, weak facets and surface hoar in some areas. Triggering one of these slabs may provide enough load to trigger the deeper persistent slab.
Watch for surface cracking and stiffer surface layers of snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2