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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 23rd, 2022–Jan 24th, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Vancouver Island.

Sustained warm temperatures and sun are forecast to continue this week. Loose wet avalanches will become increasingly likely as the surface crust breaks down, especially on steep sun exposed slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

The region now sits under a warm ridge of high pressure which is expected to persist through the week bringing very high freezing levels and sun.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy, moderate NW wind, freezing levels rising 2400 to 3000 m.

Monday: Sunny, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3000 m. 

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud, light NW wind, freezing level 2700 m. 

Wednesday: Sunny, light NW wind, freezing level 2700 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported.

Observations remain limited. If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

MIN reports from Saturday (1, 2, 3) describe hard conditions despite warm temperatures and sun. Perhaps by Monday we'll see some softening of the thick surface crust that reaches all the way to mountain top. Below this crust, snow is moist down 30-50 cm and several old crusts are now breaking down. The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong, consisting of well bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

The warming and sun are not expected to have a major impact on the previously rain soaked snowpack but surficial loose wet avalanches may become possible from steep, sun exposed slopes as the warming persists. The more the surface crust breaks down the more likely wet loose avalanches will become.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2