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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 19th, 2022–Jan 20th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Warming, with direct sun will increase the hazard, especially on steep solar aspects, TL and below.

Sensitive cornices, wind slabs and  terrible riding conditions in the Alpine.

Weather Forecast

Thursday

Flurries: 7 cm. Temp High -4 °C. Wind W: 20 km/h gusting to 55 km/h. FZL: 1500 m.

Friday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Trace. Temp: Low -10 °C, High -7 °C. Wind W: 15-25 km/h.

Saturday

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Trace. Temp: Low -7 °C, High -5 °C. Wind W: 15 km/h. FZL: 1600 m

Snowpack Summary

North winds have built new and hard wind slabs in all open features, ALP and open TL. The mid-pack is highly faceted with active, persistent weak layers from Dec. Interfaces within the facets found down ~30cm and ~60cm. These layers have varied sensitivity but if triggered can build quickly into large, destructive avalanches. Cornices are building.

Avalanche Summary

Several large avalanches have been observed over the last 48 hours around the Churchill Range up to sz 2.5 and running to ground.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

North winds have caused reverse loading wind slabs down into the tree line. This seems to be more prominent north of Tangle Hill. It is especially a concern where a hard wind slab sits over weak faceted snow. Listen for a hollow sounding snowpack.

  • Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

December's persistent weaknesses sit over different layers depending on elevation and aspect. Below 1950m, a faceting rain crust is roughly 40-60cm down. Above 1950m, a buried surface facet layer down 20-30cm is the primary concern.

  • Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3