Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
The upper snowpack has already seen some warmth, but Tuesday's rain will kick it up a notch. Natural avalanches in steeper terrain will be increasingly likely (and large) as water penetrates surface layers.
Confidence
Moderate -
Weather Forecast
Monday night: Partly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds.
Tuesday: Cloudy with flurries over the day bringing about 5 cm of new snow, switching to rain. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +1 with freezing levels jumping from 1000 to 2500 metres in the afternoon.
Wednesday: Cloud clearing in the morning. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +6 with freezing levels reaching 3000 metres.
Thursday: Sunny. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +7 with freezing levels to 3300 metres.
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday our field team observed several loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 in the treeline and above. Ski cutting produced small wet slabs running on a crust down 15cm at 1100m.
Looking forward, a dramatic warming trend starting Tuesday afternoon (including rain) stands a good chance of resuming wet loose avalanche activity in steeper terrain at all elevations.
Snowpack Summary
Thin surface crusts from warm temperatures and sunshine now likely exist on all aspects at treeline and below as well as on solar aspects in the alpine.Â
Below the surface, 5-20cm of wind redistributed dry snow sits on the early February crust (up to 2cm thick). Beneath this crust we have another 10 to 50 cm of moist snow from late January. This sits on the 10-70 cm-thick late January crust, which extends to mountain tops on all aspects.
The mid and lower snow pack is well settled but shallow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks just below the surface.
Terrain and Travel
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
- Avoid exposure to areas with overhead hazard during periods of rain.
- Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Light snowfall switching to rain will likely initiate natural wet loose wet avalanche activity on Tuesday. There is uncertainty about how much of the upper snowpack might become involved in avalanches and potential may exist for wet slides to gouge to the 50-60 cm-deep January crust. This would produce large, destructive avalanches. Wet slab and glide slab releases are also possible as water reaches crust layers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2