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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 31st, 2023–Apr 1st, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Human triggered avalanches are most likely where wind has formed deep deposits of new snow.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We suspect some natural avalanches will occur in alpine terrain during the peak of the storm on Friday night, and then human-triggered wind slabs will remain possible over the weekend as the new snow gradually strengthens.

Snowpack Summary

As the storm winds down on Saturday morning there could be 25 to 40 cm of new snow on the west island and 15 to 25 cm on the east side of the island. In most areas this snow has fallen on moist or crusty snow layers, except for shaded terrain above 1600 m. The new snow is expected to bond well to the old layers in most areas, but could potentially be poor in isolated terrain features. The middle and lower snowpack are strong and bonded.

Weather Summary

Friday night

Cloudy, scattered flurries with 2 to 8 cm of snow, 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -5 °C with freezing level dropping to 500 m.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of snow, 30 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -2 °C with freezing level around 800 m.

Sunday

Mix of sun and cloud with some light flurries starting in the afternoon, 10 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperatures around -2 °C with freezing level around 800 m.

Monday

Mostly sunny, 30 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperatures around -1 °C with freezing level around 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Carefully monitor the bond between the new snow and old surface.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow amounts are variable across the island, but the most concerning terrain will be lee features where wind has formed deeper deposits of snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2