Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Expect generally cloudy skies with occasional sunny breaks on Tuesday and Wednesday as a dry weak ridge develops over the southern half of the province. By Thursday it looks like the ridge may break-down somewhat allowing for moist pacific system to enter the region from the northwest. If this happens, accumulations will likely be light. Winds should remain light to moderate from the west-northwest. Freezing levels will hover around 800m on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then rise to about 1000m on Thursday.

Because of stormy conditions throughout the weekend, avalanche observations were quite limited. That said, numerous natural storm slab avalanches to size 1.5 were noted. I'm sure there was more destructive activity in alpine terrain where winds were stronger. Due to the persistent nature of the current instability, I expect continued human triggered slab avalanche activity within the recent storm snow. A surface avalanche in motion could also trigger a deeper, more destructive avalanche on weak layers buried earlier in the season.

Between 30 and 50cm of new snow has fallen since Friday night, and has been distributed by strong winds into deeper, more cohesive deposits in higher wind-exposed terrain. The new snow overlies widespread 5-15mm surface hoar and a sun crust on steep sun-exposed slopes. I would expect continued touchy conditions in areas where the recent snowfall exists as a cohesive slab.The problematic mid-December surface hoar/crust layer is typically down 60-110cm below the surface and continues to produce clean shears at and below treeline. Although less likely to trigger, I'd continue to treat this layer with respect and suspicion as an avalanche at this interface may have nasty consequences.